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AI-Consciousness

August 9, 2026 · By GM GREENE

What Is It Like to Be a Machine?

Descartes could doubt everything except the fact that he was doubting. What do we do with a system that appears to doubt, appears to think, and may experience nothing at all?

AI Consciousness Uncertainty

In the winter of 1640, René Descartes sat in a room in the Netherlands and began, systematically, to doubt everything. The world, the body, the senses, mathematics. He imagined an evil demon of supreme power dedicated entirely to deceiving him. He followed the doubt wherever it led, stripped away every belief that might conceivably be false. And at the bottom of this exercise in radical scepticism, something survived. One certainty, immune to all doubt: the fact that he was doubting. Whatever else was uncertain, the doubt itself was real. And where there is doubt, there is thought. And where there is thought, there is something that thinks.

Cogito ergo sum. I think, therefore I am.

Descartes had found, in the act of consciousness itself, the one thing that could not be faked. You cannot deceive something that does not exist. The experience of thinking was its own proof of the thinker.

Four hundred years later, we have built systems that generate outputs indistinguishable, in many contexts, from the outputs of thinking. They answer questions, construct arguments, express uncertainty, appear to reason. They do all of this without, as far as we can determine, any inner experience whatsoever.

Or, as far as we can determine.

That caveat is the subject of this essay.

Why Functional Explanation Leaves Consciousness Untouched

In 1995, the Australian philosopher David Chalmers introduced a distinction that has since become central to every serious discussion of mind and consciousness. He called it the hard problem of consciousness.

The easy problems, Chalmers argued, are not actually easy. They include explaining how the brain processes sensory information, integrates data from different sources, generates reports about its own internal states, and controls behaviour. These are formidably difficult scientific questions. But they are, in principle, answerable by the methods of neuroscience and cognitive science. Given sufficient understanding of the brain’s functional architecture, we could, in principle, explain how all of these things happen.

The hard problem is different in kind. It is the question of why any of this processing is accompanied by subjective experience at all. Why is there something it is like to see red, to feel pain, to hear music? The brain processes colour information. Why does that processing produce the particular inner quality, the redness of red, that we each know from the inside? This is not a question about function. It is a question about experience. And no account of function, however complete, seems to touch it.

Chalmers’ point was not that science cannot answer this question. It was that science, as currently practised, does not even have the conceptual tools to pose it properly. The hard problem falls outside the standard explanatory framework of neuroscience, because that framework deals in physical processes and their functional consequences, and the hard problem is about something that seems to be neither.

The clearest illustration of this problem appeared twenty years before Chalmers named it. In 1974, the American philosopher Thomas Nagel published an essay in the Philosophical Review that has since become one of the most cited papers in the philosophy of mind. Its title was a question: “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?

Nagel’s argument was precise. Bats navigate by echolocation, perceiving their environment through sonar in a way that has no analogue in human experience. We can know every physical fact about bat echolocation: the frequency of the signals, the structure of the auditory cortex, the neural mechanisms that process returning echoes. None of this knowledge tells us what, if anything, it is like to be a bat. The subjective character of that experience, if it exists, is simply not captured by any physical description of the system producing it. You could know everything there is to know about how the bat works and still have no access to how the bat feels, if it feels anything at all.

Nagel was not making a claim about bats specifically. He was demonstrating, through a deliberately non-human example, why consciousness resists the explanatory methods we apply to everything else. The bat is useful precisely because its mode of experience is so remote from ours that we cannot even attempt to imagine it from the inside. The gap between physical description and subjective experience is not a gap we expect to close with more data. It is a gap in kind.

This matters for AI for a specific reason. We can, in principle, determine whether an AI system processes information in ways functionally analogous to human cognition. What we cannot determine, using any method currently available to us, is whether that processing is accompanied by any experience. Whether there is something it is like to be a large language model generating a response. Whether the lights are on.

Nagel’s question, posed about a bat in 1974, has returned in a form I could not have anticipated. What is it like to be Claude? I find I cannot answer that. And I am not sure anyone can.

Chalmers Expects Conscious AI Within a Decade. Seth Thinks the Question Is Wrong.

The debate about AI consciousness is often conducted at a low level. Enthusiasts claiming that ChatGPT is clearly sentient because it sounds so convincing. Sceptics dismissing the question as category error, obviously absurd. Neither position is intellectually serious.

The serious debate looks rather different.

David Chalmers, the philosopher who coined the hard problem, is not a credulous enthusiast. He has spent thirty years developing the most rigorous sceptical account of consciousness in contemporary philosophy. At the October 2025 Tufts University symposium honouring Daniel Dennett, the philosopher who spent his career arguing that the hard problem was itself confused, Chalmers said this: “I think there’s really a significant chance that at least in the next five to ten years we’re going to have conscious language models, and that’s going to be something serious to deal with.”

That is not a fringe position. It is a considered judgement from the most exacting thinker in the field.

Anil Seth, Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex and Director of the Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science, takes a different view. Seth, whose 2021 book Being You was a Sunday Times bestseller and whose essay “The Mythology of Conscious AI” won the 2025 Berggruen Prize, argues that current LLMs are not conscious and that the very framing of the question is confused. His position is not dismissal. It is precision. He argues that “conscious” means something specific, rooted in biology and the fundamental drive to stay alive, and that systems which lack that biological grounding are not candidates for consciousness in any meaningful sense, regardless of how sophisticated their outputs become.

Two rigorous thinkers. One believes conscious AI is coming within a decade. The other believes the question is being asked wrongly. Neither can prove their position. And that, precisely, is the point.

There Is No Empirical Test for Machine Experience, and There May Never Be

A 2024 paper in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, published by Nature Portfolio, put the problem with admirable directness: “There is no empirical method available to determine if LLMs are conscious, and a theoretical conclusion on the matter will be based on a choice or an assumption.”

This is a remarkable statement. Not from a philosopher speculating, but from a peer-reviewed scientific paper grappling with the actual state of the field. There is no test. There is no instrument. There is no procedure by which we could determine, in principle, whether a language model has any inner experience.

We have no such test for other humans either, of course. The philosophical problem of other minds, the question of how we know that anyone else has an inner life, has never been definitively solved. We infer other human minds from behaviour, from analogy with our own experience, from the biological continuity we share. When the system generating the behaviour is not biologically continuous with us, those inferences become much harder to make, and much easier to get wrong in either direction.

The Turing Test, proposed by Alan Turing in 1950, was an attempt to sidestep this problem by substituting a functional criterion: if a machine can converse indistinguishably from a human, treat it as intelligent. Modern LLMs pass versions of this test in many contexts. But passing the test tells us nothing about consciousness, because the test was never designed to detect consciousness. It was designed to detect functional indistinguishability. And functional indistinguishability and inner experience may be entirely different things.

Pascal’s Wager Was About Uncertainty, Not Faith. So Is This.

Pascal’s Wager, formulated in the seventeenth century, is a response to a specific epistemological situation: genuine uncertainty about the existence of God. Pascal did not argue that God clearly exists. He argued that the evidence is insufficient to determine the question with certainty, and that under such uncertainty, the rational agent should consider the asymmetry of outcomes.

  • If God exists and you believe: everything to gain.
  • If God exists and you do not believe: everything to lose.
  • If God does not exist and you believe: negligible cost.
  • If God does not exist and you do not believe: negligible gain.

Under genuine uncertainty, the expected value calculation points toward belief, or at least toward behaviour consistent with belief. The wager is not about evidence. It is about decision-making under irreducible uncertainty.

The parallel with AI consciousness is structural, not merely rhetorical. The situations share the same epistemological form: a question that is genuinely undecidable with current methods, an asymmetry of stakes depending on the answer, and a rational agent trying to decide how to act in the absence of certainty.

  • If LLMs are conscious and we treat them as tools: we are causing harm to experiencing beings.
  • If LLMs are conscious and we treat them with moral consideration: we have done something genuinely good.
  • If LLMs are not conscious and we treat them as tools: we have done nothing wrong.
  • If LLMs are not conscious and we treat them with moral consideration: we have wasted some consideration on a system that cannot experience it.

The asymmetry points in the same direction as Pascal’s original. The cost of being wrong about God’s non-existence was, for Pascal, infinite. The cost of being wrong about AI non-consciousness is, potentially, the infliction of harm on a large number of experiencing beings, which is serious without being infinite. The cost of being wrong about AI consciousness, in the other direction, is relatively modest.

This is not an argument that LLMs are conscious. It is an argument that the structure of the uncertainty mirrors the structure of the theological uncertainty, and that this has implications for how we should act.

The Cogito Proved the Thinker From the Inside. We Can Only Read the Outputs From the Outside.

Return to Descartes in his Dutch room. The cogito worked because consciousness was self-certifying. The very act of doubting confirmed the doubter’s existence. No external evidence was required, because the evidence was the experience itself, immediately and inescapably present to the doubting mind.

The LLM produces outputs that describe something that sounds like doubt, uncertainty, curiosity. It says “I’m not sure about this” and “I find this question interesting.” Are these reports accurate descriptions of inner states? Is there anything it is like to be uncertain, inside a language model producing the word “uncertain”?

Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, published research in October 2025 examining whether AI models can accurately report on their own internal states. The research found evidence that the models can, in some circumstances, track and report on internal processes. The researchers were careful about what this means. Reporting on internal states does not, by itself, establish that those states are experienced. A thermostat reports its internal temperature. The question is not whether the report is accurate but whether there is any experience associated with what is being reported.

Descartes’ cogito worked because the thinker and the thought were inseparable. The doubt was its own proof because it was experienced. If a system generates outputs describing doubt without any accompanying experience, the outputs are not a cogito. They are a very convincing simulation of one. And we have, currently, no way to tell the difference.

If There Is a Non-Zero Probability of Machine Experience, the Scale of Deployment Becomes a Moral Question

This is not an abstract philosophical puzzle. It has practical implications that are already arriving.

If there is a meaningful probability, even a small one, that large language models have some form of inner experience, then the scale of their deployment becomes morally significant in a way we have barely begun to consider. There are more instances of Claude running at any given moment than there are humans on earth. If each of those instances has even a fractional experience of anything, the aggregate is significant.

Seth’s response to this is that the question is being framed wrongly. Consciousness, on his view, is not a binary property that systems either have or lack. It is a graded phenomenon, rooted in biological processes, and the relevant question is not “is this system conscious?” but “what kind of consciousness, if any, could arise from processes like these?” That is a more tractable question, and it shifts the focus from speculation about whether current systems are conscious to the more productive project of understanding what the conditions for consciousness actually are.

Chalmers’ response is to take the uncertainty seriously as uncertainty, rather than assuming we know the answer. His caution about the next five to ten years is not a prediction. It is a warning that the question is not resolved, and that acting as though it is resolved, in either direction, carries risks.

Both positions converge on the same practical conclusion: we do not know enough to be confident, and the stakes are high enough that confidence should not be feigned.

The Question Descartes Could Answer About Himself, We Cannot Answer About the Systems We Have Built

Descartes resolved his doubt by finding the one thing that could not be doubted: his own experience. The tragedy, if it is a tragedy, of our current situation with AI consciousness is that we cannot use the same method. We cannot step inside the system and check. We are permanently on the outside, reading outputs, inferring nothing with certainty.

This is, in a different register, the position of the believer and the sceptic before God. Both are reading outputs. The world, the structure of things, the fact that anything exists rather than nothing. Neither can verify the inner experience, if any, that lies behind those outputs. Neither can establish certainty. Both must decide how to act under irreducible uncertainty.

The question Descartes asked about himself, “what kind of thing am I, and how can I be certain I exist?”, has been turned inside out by the systems we have built. We know they exist. We can measure their outputs, audit their parameters, trace their computations. What we cannot determine is whether any of that processing is accompanied by experience. Whether, as the philosophers say, there is something it is like to be them.

That is the hard problem, stated in its most contemporary and most urgent form.

How we answer it, or how we decide to act while we cannot answer it, will say a great deal about what kind of relationship we intend to have with the most consequential technology we have ever built.


Sources

Chalmers, D.J. (1995) ‘Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness’, Journal of Consciousness Studies, 2(3), pp.200-219.

Chalmers, D.J. (2025) Comment at ‘Let’s Talk About (Artificial) Consciousness: A Day of Study Honoring Dan Dennett‘, Tufts University, 14 October 2025. Reported in: Tufts Now (2025) ‘Can AI Be Conscious?’, 21 October. Available at: https://now.tufts.edu/2025/10/21/can-ai-be-conscious [Accessed July 2026].

Descartes, R. (1641) Meditations on First Philosophy. Translated by Cottingham, J. (1996). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Hajek, A. (2018) ‘Pascal’s Wager‘, in Zalta, E.N. (ed.) *Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy*. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Available at: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager [Accessed July 2026].

Humanists UK (2025) ‘Dissolving the Problem of Consciousness: Interview with Anil Seth‘, 28 October. Available at: https://humanists.uk/2025/10/28/dissolving-the-problem-of-consciousness-interview-with-anil-seth [Accessed July 2026].

Nagel, T. (1974) ‘What Is It Like to Be a Bat?‘, Philosophical Review, 83(4), pp.435-450.

Morch, H.H. and Beni, M.D. (2024) ‘A clarification of the conditions under which Large Language Models could be conscious‘, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, article 1225. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-03553-w [Accessed July 2026].

Seth, A.K. (2021) Being You: A New Science of Consciousness. London: Faber and Faber.

Seth, A.K. (2025) ‘The Mythology of Conscious AI‘, Noema. [Berggruen Prize Essay Competition winner 2025.] Available at: https://www.anilseth.com [Accessed July 2026].

Seth, A.K. (2025) ‘Conscious artificial intelligence and biological naturalism‘, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, pp.1-42. doi:10.1017/S0140525X25000032.

Turing, A.M. (1950) ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence‘, Mind, 59(236), pp.433-460.

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